Monday, April 20, 2009

Eur/usd Daily Forecast___

Rate consolidates but is capped at 1.3580 with stops likely above 1.3600 now. Rate is solid above the 100 day MA. Foothold over the 1.3500 handle fails today but support is solid ahead of 1.3330 area. Rate likely has stops building in both directions; shorts lose control of the market after rate clears stops above the 1.3430 area.

Action remains two-way; any move lower is likely supported on dips. Overhead resistance at 1.3330/50 area now support on a pullback; aggressive traders can ADD on a dip. Possibly more official and semi-official bids overnight with traders noting Middle-eastern names on the bid. Long-term bulls are likely still in control of the market and this significant pullback is a buying opportunity in my view.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

NONE

Resistance 3: 1.3620/30
Resistance 2: 1.3580
Resistance 1: 1.3520
Latest New York: 1.3397
Support 1: 1.3380
Support 2: 1.3350
Support 3: 1.3330

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